Australia’s housing market has taken a dramatic turn, with a flood of homes hitting the market in the middle of winter as sellers race to cash out before prices slide further.
New figures reveal property listings have surged to their highest level in more than a year in what analysts are calling an “abnormal” winter market, with Brisbane emerging as one of the country’s biggest turnaround stories after shifting from a boom market to a buyers’ market in just three months.
SQM Research data released today shows national residential listings jumped more than 12 per cent in July to 278,984 properties, taking the total number of homes for sale 22 per cent higher than the same time last year.
The increase flies in the face of the usual seasonal slowdown, with July traditionally one of the quietest months of the year for new listings.
SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher said the surge suggested many sellers were trying to beat a market they feared had further to fall.
“It was a very abnormal month,” Mr Christopher said. “I think there’s definitely an element of vendors out there who would prefer to sell now rather than later.
“It could be sellers rushing to try and get a good price now rather than a worse price later.
“I think the view out there is this downturn is going to be with us for quite some time.”
Mr Christopher said property investors could also be driving part of the increase as they reconsidered their portfolios following recent property taxation changes, although SQM did not have a breakdown of seller types.
The data also points to a significant shift in how Australians are choosing to sell their homes.
While total listings have climbed almost 23 per cent over the past year, auction listings have fallen by about 20 per cent nationwide over the same period.
“There’s definitely been a movement away from vendors selling by auction and towards private treaty,” Mr Christopher said.
“That’s fairly typical in market downturns. There’s a sentiment out there that auctions aren’t the best way to sell in a falling market.”
Brisbane was one of the standouts — recording an 18 per cent jump in listings during July to more than 20,000 properties.
Mr Christopher said the city’s fortunes had changed dramatically in a matter of months.
“The Brisbane market has turned on a dime,” he said. “Earlier this year Brisbane was one of the strongest markets in Australia and it’s completely turned in the last three months to being a pretty strong buyers’ market.”
He said South East Queensland’s large investor base could be making it more vulnerable than other parts of the country.
“If it is investors leaving the market, and logically that would make sense, it wouldn’t be a surprise.”
Properties that have been on the market for at least 180 days increased 8.1 per cent over the month and are now 6.6 per cent higher than a year ago.
Mr Christopher said many of those homes remained unsold because sellers had initially priced them well above market expectations.
“We often find many of these older listings are sellers who have priced way above the market,” he said.
But as competition intensifies, sellers are beginning to adjust their expectations.
Combined capital city asking prices fell 1.2 per cent over the past month, marking the third consecutive monthly decline. Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne and Perth all recorded falls of around 1 per cent.
For buyers, however, the changing market could create opportunities not seen for several years.
“A lot more choice than we’ve seen for a long time,” Mr Christopher said. “That’s the flip side to this.”
But he warned buyers hoping prices had already bottomed out could be disappointed.
“It doesn’t mean prices are about to stop falling,” he said.
Although SQM’s forecasts released earlier this year predicted Brisbane prices would rise by around 2 per cent during 2026, Mr Christopher said market conditions had deteriorated much faster than expected.
“The reality is the market has peaked in Brisbane.”
Looking ahead, he expects more homes to hit the market as spring selling season gathers pace, putting further pressure on prices unless demand improves significantly.
Mr Christopher said a standard 25 basis point interest rate cut was unlikely to be enough to reverse current conditions.
“I think in this market we would need to see more than a 25 basis point cut for the market to stabilise,” he said. “It would have to be more like 50 or 75 basis points.”
He said investors were also likely to remain cautious until rental yields improved enough to offset recent taxation changes, delaying any meaningful rebound in buyer demand.
“The issue is, with the property taxation changes, investors will demand a compensation before heading back into the market — and that’s a rise in rental yields.”
Property Investment Professionals of Australia (PIPA) chair Cate Bakos said it was clear the national market had entered a “recalibration phase”, but conditions varied between states and territories.
Ms Bakos said New South Wales had shifted into a clear downswing, with Sydney auction clearance rates dipping below 50 per cent and premium suburbs discounting asking prices by up to 10 per cent.
“Victoria is seeing investors pivot from established Melbourne houses toward regional centres like Bendigo and Ballarat, where yields are stronger,” Ms Bakos said.
“Boutique apartments are also regaining favour, offering rental returns above five per cent as borrowing capacity contracts”
Ms Bakos said the Queensland market remained active, but segmented.
“Greater Brisbane’s affordability constraints are pushing demand into units, while regional hubs such as Rockhampton and Toowoomba stand out with yields above five per cent as well as major infrastructure drivers,” she said.
“Western Australia continues to outperform nationally, with Perth values up significantly annually.
“However, momentum is slowing. Listings have risen year-on-year and days on market have doubled.”
Ms Bakos said South Australia’s boom had softened since the federal budget was delivered, with auction clearance rates falling and inexperienced developers exposed.
“Still, low unemployment and strong fundamentals suggest a cyclical slowdown rather than a crash,” she said.
“Tasmania has enjoyed steady growth, particularly in Launceston and the North West, where affordability and yields attract investors. Hobart remains resilient, though buyers are increasingly price sensitive.
“Overall, the national market is cooling, but fundamentals such as infrastructure, affordability, and rental demand continue to underpin long-term resilience. The cycle is shifting from momentum-driven growth to selective and strategy-led opportunities.”
Originally Published : Elizabeth Tilley | realestate.com.au | 4 August 2026
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